Strategic Energy Advisory

Supply Reports

The following North American Gas Strategy (NAGS) reports focus on supply.


Gas Production Outlook by Basin to 2030

(August 2018, 18 pages)

This report analyzes the major gas supply basins in the US “Lower 48” using Solomon’s forecasting models for gas well productivity, decline, and production. Solomon performed this ground-up analysis of regional and total US Lower 48 gas supply by assessing gas production at the basin level. The basins include Marcellus, Utica, Haynesville, Eagle Ford, Anadarko, Arkoma, Permian, and others. The result of this analysis is a forecast of North American gas production growth (including Western Canada) to 2030.


Back to the Future – Unlocking TransCanada Mainline Capacity

(August 2018, 10 pages)

Solomon’s Strategic Energy Advisory (SEA) Retainer Service has provided clients with an assessment titled Back to the Future – Unlocking TransCanada Mainline Capacity. The current National Energy Board (NEB) hearing on RH-001-2018, Application for the 2018–2020 Mainline Tolls, will decide tolls that will apply on the Mainline until the NEB-approved settlement (RH-001-2014) between the three large Ontario and Quebec local distribution companies (LDCs) expires in 2020. This report provides a forecast for long-haul TransCanada Mainline tolling post-2020. Understanding tolling post-2020 is of utmost importance to those making decisions regarding go/no-go drilling budgets, longer-term hedging, gas-plant and capital investments, and overall activity levels.


US and Canadian Gas & Oil Reserve Replacement for 2017

(May 2018, 12 pages)

Solomon’s US and Canadian Gas & Oil Reserve Replacement for 2017 analyzes the proven oil and gas replacement performance of the 30 largest public oil and gas producers both in Canada and in the “Lower 48” United States. The top 30 US gas producers reported 149 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of proven reserves at the end of 2017, an increase of 17% from 127 Tcf at year-end 2016. Overall US oil reserves replacement was 329%, compared to 119% in 2016, due to price recovery, cost reduction, and improved productivity compared to the previous year. Overall Canadian oil reserves replacement was 201%, compared to 173% in 2016.


Western Canada Natural Gas Production Outlook

(April 2018, 16 pages)

The Western Canada Natural Gas Production Outlook topic paper forecasts natural gas production, gas well connections, and new gas well productivity to 2025 for the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB). In addition to discussions of production by gas strategy area, a more detailed gas supply allocation is provided for the Montney, Duvernay, and Deep Basin plays. These areas, covering both the west-central area of Alberta and the northeast section of British Columbia, are experiencing increased industry activity, and ongoing production growth is expected.


US Northeast Gas Outlook to 2025

(March 2018, 10 pages)

The US Northeast Gas Outlook to 2025 topic paper focuses on the Northeast Appalachia region, which includes the Marcellus and Utica gas plays. Topics covered include Solomon’s gas resource estimate, Marcellus and Utica gas production, new gas well productivity, well connections forecasts, and predicted supply/demand balance to 2025. The topic paper also covers pipeline capacities, new pipelines, and pipeline expansions in the US Northeast.


Canadian Oil Forecast to 2025

(February 2018, 16 pages)

This report provides a forecast to 2025 for both oilsands and conventional oil production for the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) and Canada's East Coast. It analyzes more than 150 oilsands developments that have been announced or approved, are under construction, or are already producing. The report also evaluates pipeline capacity, analyzes full-cycle cost for in-situ and mining oilsands production, and provides Solomon’s assessment of CO2 emissions. In addition, it includes a forecast for East Coast offshore production.


North American Oil and Associated Gas

(November 2017, 18 pages)

This report provides a forecast for North American oil and associated gas production that is based on three of Solomon’s forecast models: our decline, new oil well productivity, and production forecast models. The forecast covers the period to 2025 and focuses primarily on the major oil supply plays. Additional detail is provided for the major basins: Bakken, Permian, Niobrara, Eagle Ford, and Gulf of Mexico Deepwater. The report also includes detailed full-cycle cost analysis and resource assessment for the growth basins.


Gas Production Outlook by Basin to 2025

(August 2017, 16 pages)

This report analyzes the major gas supply basins in the US “Lower 48” based on Solomon’s gas well productivity, decline, and production forecasting models, and provides a forecast of North American gas production growth to 2025. This ground-up analysis of regional and total US Lower 48 gas supply is made available by assessing gas production at the basin level. The basins include Marcellus, Utica, Haynesville, Eagle Ford, Anadarko, Arkoma, Permian, and others. The result of this analysis is a forecast of North American gas production growth (including Western Canada) to 2025.


Western Gas Markets Supply-Demand Balance

(June 2017, 9 pages)

This topic report provides an overview of target markets and a forecast for Canadian gas exports by point to 2025. Expectations for market competition in regions where Western Canada gas competes are reviewed, and a regional supply-demand balance forecast is provided, including a forecast for Western Canada gas exports by export pipeline. Also discussed are expectations for east coast Canadian gas production and pipeline flows within the region.


US and Canadian Gas & Oil Reserve Replacement for 2016

(May 2017, 12 pages)

Solomon’s US and Canadian Gas & Oil Reserve Replacement for 2016 reviews the proven oil and gas replacement performance of the 30 largest public oil and gas producers in the “Lower 48” United States as well as of the 30 largest public oil and gas producers in Canada. The results indicate that overall gas reserves replacement in the US Lower 48 was 119%, compared to a negative 175% in 2015, due to improved economics and well productivity improvements. Overall gas reserves placement reported by Canadian companies was 173%, almost twice the replacement recorded in 2014. The results also indicate that oil reserve replacement in the US was 110%, compared to a negative 45% in 2014. For Canada, the drop in forecasted oil prices led to reduced oil reserve replacement.


Western Canada Natural Gas Production Outlook and Cost Assessment

(April 2017, 23 pages)

The Western Canada Natural Gas Production Outlook and Cost Assessment topic paper forecasts natural gas production, gas well connections, and new gas well productivity to 2025 for the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB). In addition to discussions of production by gas strategy area, full-cycle cost, and break-even gas prices, a more detailed gas supply allocation is provided for the Montney, Duvernay, and Deep Basin plays. These areas, covering both the west-central area of Alberta and the northeast section of British Columbia, are experiencing increased industry activity, and ongoing production growth is expected.


North American Economic Ranking – Natural Gas Basins

(March 2017, 18 pages)

This report delivers detailed insight into the cost components driving full-cycle costs and break-even natural gas prices by play. It is designed to help clients manage their asset portfolios by allocating capital to those gas plays that have the lowest break-even gas prices. The report may also be used for due diligence in evaluating acquisition opportunities.


Rockies Natural Gas Market Assessment 2016

(February 2017, 11 pages)

This report provides a forecast for the gas-producing regions of the US Rockies and Permian Basin and addresses production, well connections, initial productivity, and typical decline rates. Also provided are forecasts for regional demand growth by sector and potential flows into other North American regions and Mexico.


North American Natural Gas Liquids Production Outlook to 2025

(January 2017, 13 pages)

This report provides a forecast for North American natural gas liquids (NGL) production to 2025 for the US “Lower 48” states and the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB). Individual forecasts are provided for the major NGL-producing regions or play areas, including the Montney/Duvernay in Western Canada and the Gulf Coast, Appalachia, Midwest, and Rockies in the US. Analysis is provided for the recent price differentials between West Texas Intermediate oil and the NGL components (propane, butane, and condensate). The report also includes a summary of major recent NGL infrastructure projects.


North American Oil and Associated Gas

(November 2016, 20 pages)

This report provides a forecast out to 2025 for North American oil and associated gas production based on our forecast models for decline, new oil well productivity, and production. The forecast focuses primarily on the major oil supply plays in Canada and the United States. Additional detail is provided for the growth in unconventional oil production, including unconventional production in the Bakken, Permian, and Eagle Ford oil plays. An updated oil and associated gas production forecast is included for the Gulf of Mexico Deepwater and Western Canada producing areas. The report also includes an overview of tight oil refining issues.


Pacific NorthWest LNG (PNW) Client Alert

(October 2016, 2 pages)

This client alert provides an overview of the Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency’s conditional approval of a natural gas project called Pacific NorthWest LNG (PNW) on Lelu Island near Prince Rupert, British Columbia.


Gas Production Outlook by Basin to 2025

(August 2016, 20 pages)

This report analyzes the major gas supply basins in the US “Lower 48” based on Solomon's gas well productivity, decline, and production forecasting models and provides a forecast for North American gas production growth to 2025. This ground-up analysis of regional and total US Lower 48 gas supply is made available by assessing gas production at the basin level. The result of this analysis is a forecast of gas production growth for all of North America (including Western Canada) to 2025.


US and Canadian Gas & Oil Reserve Replacement for 2015

(May 2016, 11 pages)

Solomon’s US and Canadian Gas & Oil Reserve Replacement for 2015 reviews the proved oil and gas replacement performance of the 30 largest public oil and gas producers in the “Lower 48” United States and, separately, the 30 largest public oil and gas producers in Canada. The results indicate that overall gas reserves replacement in the US Lower 48 was a negative 175%, compared to 189% in 2014, due to a reduction in natural gas prices. Almost all top 30 gas producers recorded negative revisions. Overall gas reserves placement reported by Canadian companies was 94%, almost two times less than in 2014. The results also indicate that oil reserves replacement in the US was a negative 45% compared to 221% in 2014, due to a decrease in the oil price. For Canada, the drop in forecasted oil prices led to reduced oil reserve additions.


Western Canada Natural Gas Production Outlook to 2025

(April 2016, 10 pages)

The Western Canada Natural Gas Production Outlook to 2025 topic report forecasts natural gas production, gas well connections, and new gas well productivity to 2025 for the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB). The forecast is presented for the basin overall, by Solomon’s gas strategy areas, and by gas play. The report includes detailed analyses of two main growth plays: Montney and Duvernay.


US Northeast Gas Outlook to 2025

(March 2016, 17 pages)

The US Northeast Gas Outlook to 2025 topic paper focuses on the Northeast Appalachia region, which includes the Marcellus and Utica gas plays. Topics covered include Solomon’s shale gas resource estimate and full-cycle gas cost assessment by play type, Solomon’s gas production and demand forecast and predicted supply/demand balance to 2025, and Solomon’s forecasts regarding new gas well productivity, well connections, and rig count. The topic paper also covers new pipelines and pipeline expansions in the US Northeast, as well as development of gas plants and NGL infrastructure in this region.


North American Oil and Associated Gas

(November 2015, 18 pages)

This report provides a forecast for North American oil and associated gas production that takes into account declining oil prices, new oil well productivity, and production forecast models to 2022. It focuses primarily on the major oil supply plays in Canada and the United States. Information is also provided on the growth in unconventional oil production in plays such as the Bakken, Permian, and Eagle Ford. Finally, an updated forecast is provided for oil and associated gas production in the Gulf of Mexico Deepwater and Western Canada producing areas.


Gas Production Outlook by Basin to 2022

(August 2015, 18 pages)

This report applies Solomon’s forecasting models to the major gas supply basins in the US "Lower 48." The results of this analysis are combined with those in our April 2015 report on Western Canada to arrive at a forecast for North American gas production growth as a whole to 2022. Solomon’s forecasting models address gas well productivity, gas well decline, and production. This report uses these models to analyze regional and total US Lower 48 gas supply from the ground up. The foundation of the analysis is an assessment of gas production at the basin level.


US and Canadian Gas & Oil Reserve Replacement for 2014

(May 2015, 10 pages)

Solomon’s US and Canadian Gas & Oil Reserve Replacement for 2014 reviews the proven natural gas and oil replacement performance of the 30 largest public gas producers in the “Lower 48” United States and, separately, the 30 largest public natural gas and oil producers in Canada. Oil reserve replacement is a new area of coverage for this update of the 2014 reserve replacement topic report. The results indicate that more than 100% reserve replacement in both countries has been achieved for both oil and gas. The drop in oil prices over the second half of 2014 has led to reduced oil reserve additions for Canada in 2014 compared to 2013.


Western Canada Natural Gas Production Outlook to 2022

(April 2015, 9 pages)

This report analyzes gas production, natural gas well connections, and new gas well productivity in seven regional Western Canada gas strategies. It also provides individual production forecasts for the Montney and Duvernay plays. (Exploitation and development of the Montney and Duvernay are key to Western Canada gas production growth.) By 2022, tight and shale gas is expected to account for over 75% of Western Canada’s gas production.


North American Natural Gas Liquids Production Outlook to 2022

(January 2015, 10 pages)

This report provides a forecast for North American natural gas liquids (NGL) production for the US "Lower 48" and Western Canada to 2022. Individual forecasts are provided for the major NGL-producing regions or play areas, including the Montney/Duvernay in Western Canada and the Eagle Ford/Gulf Coast, Marcellus/Utica, Midwest, and Rockies in the US. Analysis is provided for the recent price differentials between West Texas Intermediate oil and the NGL components (propane, butane, and condensate).


North American Oil and Associated Gas

(November 2014, 17 pages)

This report provides a forecast for North American oil and associated gas production based on our forecast models for decline, new oil well productivity, and production to 2022, focusing primarily on the major oil supply plays and areas in Canada and the United States. Additional detail is provided for the growth in unconventional oil production, including production in the Bakken, Permian, and Eagle Ford oil plays. An updated oil and associated gas production forecast is also included for the Gulf of Mexico Deepwater producing area.


NEB LNG Export Applications Client Alert

(November 2014, 3 pages)

This alert outlines three applications that were submitted to the Canadian National Energy Board (NEB) to export liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Canadian Maritimes region and Quebec, Canada.


Gas Production Outlook by Basin to 2022

(August 2014, 12 pages)

This report uses Solomon’s forecasting models for gas well productivity, decline, and production to analyze the major gas supply basins in the US Lower 48 and develop a forecast of North American gas production growth to 2022. Assessing gas production at the basin level has allowed us to perform a ground-up analysis of regional and total US Lower 48 gas supply.


Western Canada Natural Gas Production Outlook to 2022

(May 2014, 10 pages)

This report analyzes gas production, natural gas well connections, and new gas well productivity in seven regional Western Canada gas strategies and four unconventional plays. Exploitation and development of the Montney and Duvernay plays is key to production growth. By 2022, tight and shale gas is expected to account for at least 80% of Western Canada’s gas production.


US and Canadian Gas Reserve Replacement for 2013

(April 2014, 8 pages)

This report analyzes publicly available 2013 data for US and Canadian gas reserve replacement rates as well as data on gas reserve life indices for the top 30 producers. The data covers half of US gas production and three quarters of Canadian gas production, providing a reasonable representation of the industry as a whole. The results indicate that more than full reserve replacement in both countries has been achieved, a strong comeback from the negative reserve replacement results in 2012.


Ohio Permit Conditions for Drilling Activity Client Alert

(April 2014, 2 pages)

This alert concerns the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) announcement of tougher regulations for drilling and completing wells near previous seismic activity.


Pipeline Repurposing

(March 2014, 9 pages)

This report discusses the implications of growing shale production on the pipeline industry, including the conversion of natural gas pipelines to carriage of natural gas liquids (NGL) and oil. The report forecasts oil and NGL regional production growth, natural gas pipeline conversions into oil, and NGL use versus the growing supply. The US Northeast has traditionally been a substantial market for US Gulf Coast gas. However, supply growth in the US Northeast is creating opportunities for creation of new facilities, alteration of existing flows, and repurposing of existing infrastructure for alternative fuel service.


Shale Gas Production Outlook by Play to 2022

(April 2014, 9 pages)

This report analyzes North American shale basins and provides a forecast for shale gas development to 2022. Shale gas will expand to comprise more than 60% of North American gas production by 2022. Because oil, condensate, and natural gas liquids enhance the economics of drilling wells, most wells, including those drilled in Eagle Ford, SW Marcellus, Duvernay, and Utica, will be drilled for liquids.

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